Yes, midterms are here. I have one tomorrow and one on Friday. Decision Analysis where we have to decide what to do given that one decision has a 50% probability of occuring, one has a 20% chance of occuring and one has a 30% chance of occuring. Given that these probabilities correlate with gaining $1mil, gaining $2mil or losing $3m, what would you choose? This class is supposed to help us take emotion out of our decisions and base them rather on rational thought. A novel concept, but if you're like me and Mr George W. you also like "going with your gut."
One of the interesting concepts to come from this class is that people were given a test and with each answer they gave they had to put a % certainty that they were correct. For instance, if the question was, "What year was Einstein born?" And you are given two answers, you would choose one of the answers and put that you are 50%, 60%, 70%....100% sure. What do the results show? That when people say they are 100% certain, where there is absolutely no chance of being incorrect, they are actually only right 89% of the time. Even more drastic, when people are 90% sure, they are correct only 67% of the time. This shows that people are overconfident about what they know and that even those who seem to be certain are still suspect. Interesting, no?
The other midterm will cover the most dreaded and downright godawful subject known to business, accounting. I wonder if my classic equation will get me any points on the exam; Accouting = Sucks. I think I will put this at the bottom of the balance sheet and see if my professor (who literally wrote the book) will be amused. I think he will debit my accrued hatred of accounting and credit my grade expense. A little accounting humor....can you hate it?
Here are some pics for your amusement.
Look kids, Big Ben.
The HAWG!
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